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Thema von Capillatus im Forum Wissens + Schulungsforum
In the past year, there were some changes made to the configuration of global models. I am going to present the updated latest information of global models that we all use. This is my first post on this forum. :)
UKMO - United Kingdom met office - UK
- Global Model 17km Resolution, 70 Vertical Levels, model top at 0.01mb. Forecast duration: 0-144h for 00z & 12z. Run times: 00z, 06z, 12z, 18z.
- UKV high resolution model 1.5-4km Resolution, 70 Vertical Levels, model top at 2mb. Forecast duration: 0-36h for run times: 03z, 09z, 15z, 21z.
- MOGREPS Global ensemble forecast 33km Resolution, 70 Vertical Levels, model top at 0.01mb. Forecast duration: 0-7 days (12 members) at run times: 00z, 06z, 12z, 18z. + 0-9 hrs forecast (33 members for hybrid analysis).
- MOGREPS medium-range ensemble forecast 33km Resolution, 85 Vertical Levels, model top at 0.01mb. Forecast duration: 0-15 days (24 members) at run times: 00z, 12z.
-*Global Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System - GloSea5 N216, 0.5°, 50km Resolution, 85 Vertical Levels, model top at 0.01mb. Forecast duration: 0–6 months. Run times: Once per month. 42 ensemble members
ECMWF - European center for medium range weather forecast - UK
- Global Deterministic High resolution Model T1279, 0.125°, 16km Resolution, 137 Vertical Levels, model top at 0.01mb. Forecast duration: 0-240h for 00z & 12z runs. Run times: 00z, 06z, 12z, 18z.
-Global Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) T639, 0.25°, 32km Resolution, 91 Vertical Levels, model top at 0.01mb. Forecast duration: 0-240h for 00z & 12z runs. 51 members (50+control run)
-Global Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) - LEG B T319, 0.5°, 64km Resolution, 91 Vertical Levels, model top at 0.01mb. Forecast duration: 240-360h for 00z & 12z runs. 51 members (50+control run)
-Global monthly Ensemble Prediction System - ECM32 T319, 0.5°, 64km Resolution, 91 Vertical Levels, model top at 0.01mb. Forecast duration: 0-32 days (768h). Run times: 00z every Monday and Thursday. 51 members (50+control run)
-Global Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System - ECM SEAS T255, 1°, 80km Resolution, 91 Vertical Levels, model top at 0.01mb. Forecast duration: 0–7 months (monthly), 0-13 months (annual range). Run times: Once per month. 51 members (50+control run)
NCEP - National center for environmental prediction - USA
- Global Model - GFS (latest update) T1534, 0.25°, 13km Resolution, 64 Vertical Levels(planned to increase later to 128 levels), model top at 0.3mb. Forecast duration: 0-240h for 00z, 06z, 12z, 18z run times.
- Global Model - GFS (latest update) - LEG B T574, 0.5°, 35km Resolution, 64 Vertical Levels (planned to increase later to 128 levels), model top at 0.3mb. Forecast duration: 240-384h for 00z, 06z, 12z, 18z run times.
- Global Ensemble forecast model - GEFS T254, 0.5°, 55km Resolution, 42 Vertical Levels, model top at 2mb. Forecast duration: 0-192h for 00z, 06z, 12z, 18z run times. 21 members (20+control run) + Bias correction
- Global Ensemble forecast model - GEFS - LEG B T190, 0.5°, 70km Resolution, 42 Vertical Levels, model top at 2mb. Forecast duration: 192-384h for 00z, 06z, 12z, 18z run times. 21 members (20+control run) + Bias correction * -Global seasonal forecast system - CFSv2 T126, 1.0°, 100km Resolution, 64 Vertical Levels, model top at 0.2mb.* Forecast duration: One control member 0-9 months run at 00z, 06z, 12z, 18z. Three control members 0-123 days (1 season) at 00z. Three control members 0-45 days at 06z, 12z, 18z. Total of 16 CFS runs initiate every day, of which 4 runs go out to 9 months, 3 runs (3 members in one run) go out to 1 season and 9 runs (3 members x 3 runs) go out to 45 days. * [[File:cfsv2runs.png|none|1024px|NaNpx]] * FNMOC - Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center - USA
- Global Model - NAVGEM T359, 0.5°, 50km Resolution, 50 Vertical Levels, model top at 0.04mb. Forecast duration: 0-180h for 00z,*12z / 0-144h for 06z, 18z run times. - Global Ensemble forecast model - FENS T119, 1.0°, 90km Resolution, 30 Vertical Levels, model top at 1mb. Forecast duration: 0-384h for 00z, 12z. run times. 21 members (20+control run) + Bias correction
JMA - Japan Meteorological Agency - Japan
- Global Spectral Model - JMA GSM T959, 0.187°, 20km Resolution, 100 Vertical Levels, model top at 0.01mb. Forecast duration: 0-84h for 00z, 06z, 18z run times / 0-240h for 12z run.
- Global Ensemble forecast model - JMA EPS T479, 0.375°, 40km Resolution, 60 Vertical Levels, model top at 0.1mb. Forecast duration: 0-264h for 00z, 12z run times. 27 members.
-Global monthly Ensemble Prediction System - JMA Weeklies T319, 0.562°, 60km Resolution, 60 Vertical Levels, model top at 0.1mb. Forecast duration: 0-35 days (840h), run at 12z once per month. 51 members (50+control run). * -*Global Seasonal Ensemble Predistion system - JMA Seasonal EPS* T96, 1.875°, 180km Resolution, 40 Vertical Levels, model top at 0.4mb. Forecast duration: 0-210 days, run once a month at 00z.*51 members (50+control run).
I will also add the model terrain or model topography of the GFS, GEFS and HRES ECMWF. The borders are not a part of the model output. I added the county borders myself, to compare the model terrain to actual borders.
First ECMWF, which despite having a few km lower resolution, has a much smoother terrain and a better representation than GFS. Not to mention the sub-grid orography module.
[[File:ecmwf.png|none|1024px|NaNpx]]
Next is the new GFS. Quite an improvement from the old one.
[[File:gfs.png|none|1024px|NaNpx]]
And then we have GEFS A and B. A is the configuration that goes to 180h, and B goes from 192-384h. Both versions, especially the B, have a bit of a problem with the representation of Alps. That is one of the reasons why GEFS usually draws perfect secondary cyclogenesis scenarios in the 192-384h and removes them when it gets into the better resolution.
[[File:gefsa.png|none|1024px|NaNpx]]
[[File:gefsb.png|none|1024px|NaNpx]]
I plotted the data from the SFLUX files of GFS, SFC Analysis for ECMWF and PGRB files for GEFS.
Condensation in the updraft/inflow region, in interaction with the downdraft. ;) Which means, there is no wall cloud in this picture or anything unusual.
Nah, this is not a wall cloud. Based on the time and location, there was no mesocyclone either. This is just cumulus mediocris convection under the base, in the moist air (reduced LCL), and fractus merging to the right under the base, in what looks like a weaker upward motion.
This location is quite far away from Budapest and so far away from any tornado potential. This location was on the W flank of the surface low, and so under the more northerly sfc flow, with the upper low over Italy. The tornado potential was on the other side of the low, under the advection and the southerly flow, that increased the low level shearing and instability parameters, in the central and east Hungary.
The conditions can change really fast in only a few kilometres, especially with a situation like this. So the tornado potential was quite limited to the E/Cntrl Hungary, because of the combination and positioning of the upper low and surface low. ;)
If I can just add a little bit more technical view. In the background you have a classic multicell cluster, with a semi-cumuliform anvil, and a towering cumulus in front. Cumulus Congestus - Cu Cong to be exact. So nothing unusual here on the picture. :)
Definitely a form of whirlwind. In this case, a dust devil would be a good bet, or more like a "thermal whirlwind" or an "eddy whirlwind", especially if you say you were near a lake and the air was calm before. :)
Non-supercell tornadoes, are all funnels that touchdown, and don't originate from a mesocyclone. Tornado is only a name for a funnel that touches down from a mesocyclone. A funnel that has a touchdown on land without a mesocyclone, is called a landspout, and when over water its a waterspout. There are different mechanics for each. Just low wind and convergence is not enough by far. What you really need is also steep lapse rates (temperature gradients with height) that are near the dry adiabatic lapse rates (above 8°C/km), low CIN, and higher LCL heights.
I apologise if it is a bit too technical. Maybe someone can translate it. :)
The first cold weather we had, around the 14th, was SSW connected. That was the result of the SSW polar vortex disruption, and the wave 2 vortex split. The wave 2 was coming strong from the Atlantic, so when the split occurred, it was more or less instantaneous throughout the troposphere and stratosphere. Basically geopotential height rises near and over the pole.
A few graphics.
And just prior to the cold/cool shot:
As for this second cold shot, it was amongst all, also an SSW response. I say amongst all, because the troposphere has its own dynamics and forcings besides the stratosphere, so SSW is not the main factor, but it plays an important role. In blue, I marked the height rises connected with the first split. And in green, we actually have the real SSW effect infiltrating into the troposphere, with respect to the SSW response time-lag climatology.
This SSW had a decent downwelling.
And on this graph, we can see a bit more obviously, how the SSW induced effect downwelled.
And a few graphics:
I write on many different forums (some of you maybe know me as Recretos on the Netweather forum), and on most of them if not all, people were seeing this SSW as a 100% guarantee for a severe winter or cold period. But that is not how stuff works. At least on NW forum, me and some others were trying to point out the fact that even tho an SSW statistically increases chances for EU cold shots, it cannot 100% guarantee its occurrence and especially not its longevity, because of the constant tropospheric dynamics and forcings constantly mixing in this year, especially the MJO.
So the bottom line is, both cold shots had a "connection" with the stratosphere and the SSW, especially the last one.
Best regards.
Edit: This is probably one of my last post on the stratosphere in this winter, because I kinda shifted my focus from the stratosphere on the 2013 storm season. I am already doing reanalysis, and preparing analog forecasts and comparisons of the 2013 storm season with past seasons and years. :)
While models always seem to show snow scenarios and then removing them or just keeping them in the future forever, the stratosphere is a different story. The general idea with the warming and the polar vortex disposition remains more all less the same, with minimal "away moving". The models are quite accurate for stratosphere, basically because it is on a "flat" calculation surface, and the features are on a very large scale, so it is easier for the model to forecast activities in the mid and upper stratosphere. The accuracy of models for stratosphere in the 336-384 hours, is the same as the 500mb forecasts in the 120-144 hours.
The latest runs are basically already carving out the "R.I.P Polar Vortex" tombstone, or at least for its influence, hinting at a possible "official" SSW event around January 10th.
ECMWF is also picking up the warming in the mid and upper strat. and will possibly continue to do so as the "main events" move closer to the 240h time frame. And with the wave1 picking up the pace again throughout the whole 0-10 day timeframe, the vortex already began its displacement mode.
The forecasted sounding for the point where EC has Tmax at 10mb at 192h. You can see the the warm air intrusion fairly good in the mid and more the upper strat.
With the High strengthening and putting more pressure on the Polar Vortex, along with the warm air intrusion, the wind forecasted beyond 300h, shows a zonal reversal over the pole.
So basically, quite a clash forming above our heads.
It is still too far away to start speculating on possible effects on the troposphere and the winter in Europe.
The forecasts for the stratosphere at mid and higher levels, look really amazing. I have never seen anything like it, not even in the archives.
Warming events like this, would really disrupt the polar vortex, and if this would really happen and downwell into the troposphere, it could be a real game changer. Depending where the leftovers of the polar vortex would fall, we could have either summer in January and February, or a mini ice age.