In the wake of the Polish low, a diffuse and inactive frontal boundary becomes stationary across Central Europe. Very dry mid and upper levels should allow several hours of insolation after the breakup of residual low-level clouds, and low-end CAPE is expected to build. With the Northward retreat of the jet axis, a thread of enhanced vorticity will cross the area around noon, which looks rather benign in global models but quite "aggressive" in limited area models. Isolated to scattered showers and low-topped thunderstorms are forecast to form in the noon and early afternoon hours. The background wind field is strong enough for moderate storm organization with a chance of marginally severe wind gusts and isolated sub-severe hail. Wind shear will turn much stronger late in the afternoon, but a transition to pronounced negative vorticity advection and decreasing insolation will likely suppress further convection early enough to go without a level 1 here. Thunderstorm activity will likely spare the Alpine region itself due to the day before's heavy dump of fresh snow which first needs to be sapped by the sunrays, and also Northern Italy and Slovenia due to a quick progression of dry downslope (North Foehn) winds from the Alps into the lowlands.
