Condensation in the updraft/inflow region, in interaction with the downdraft. ;) Which means, there is no wall cloud in this picture or anything unusual.
Nah, this is not a wall cloud. Based on the time and location, there was no mesocyclone either. This is just cumulus mediocris convection under the base, in the moist air (reduced LCL), and fractus merging to the right under the base, in what looks like a weaker upward motion.
This location is quite far away from Budapest and so far away from any tornado potential. This location was on the W flank of the surface low, and so under the more northerly sfc flow, with the upper low over Italy. The tornado potential was on the other side of the low, under the advection and the southerly flow, that increased the low level shearing and instability parameters, in the central and east Hungary.
The conditions can change really fast in only a few kilometres, especially with a situation like this. So the tornado potential was quite limited to the E/Cntrl Hungary, because of the combination and positioning of the upper low and surface low. ;)
If I can just add a little bit more technical view. In the background you have a classic multicell cluster, with a semi-cumuliform anvil, and a towering cumulus in front. Cumulus Congestus - Cu Cong to be exact. So nothing unusual here on the picture. :)
Definitely a form of whirlwind. In this case, a dust devil would be a good bet, or more like a "thermal whirlwind" or an "eddy whirlwind", especially if you say you were near a lake and the air was calm before. :)
Non-supercell tornadoes, are all funnels that touchdown, and don't originate from a mesocyclone. Tornado is only a name for a funnel that touches down from a mesocyclone. A funnel that has a touchdown on land without a mesocyclone, is called a landspout, and when over water its a waterspout. There are different mechanics for each. Just low wind and convergence is not enough by far. What you really need is also steep lapse rates (temperature gradients with height) that are near the dry adiabatic lapse rates (above 8°C/km), low CIN, and higher LCL heights.
I apologise if it is a bit too technical. Maybe someone can translate it. :)
The first cold weather we had, around the 14th, was SSW connected. That was the result of the SSW polar vortex disruption, and the wave 2 vortex split. The wave 2 was coming strong from the Atlantic, so when the split occurred, it was more or less instantaneous throughout the troposphere and stratosphere. Basically geopotential height rises near and over the pole.
A few graphics.
And just prior to the cold/cool shot:
As for this second cold shot, it was amongst all, also an SSW response. I say amongst all, because the troposphere has its own dynamics and forcings besides the stratosphere, so SSW is not the main factor, but it plays an important role. In blue, I marked the height rises connected with the first split. And in green, we actually have the real SSW effect infiltrating into the troposphere, with respect to the SSW response time-lag climatology.
This SSW had a decent downwelling.
And on this graph, we can see a bit more obviously, how the SSW induced effect downwelled.
And a few graphics:
I write on many different forums (some of you maybe know me as Recretos on the Netweather forum), and on most of them if not all, people were seeing this SSW as a 100% guarantee for a severe winter or cold period. But that is not how stuff works. At least on NW forum, me and some others were trying to point out the fact that even tho an SSW statistically increases chances for EU cold shots, it cannot 100% guarantee its occurrence and especially not its longevity, because of the constant tropospheric dynamics and forcings constantly mixing in this year, especially the MJO.
So the bottom line is, both cold shots had a "connection" with the stratosphere and the SSW, especially the last one.
Best regards.
Edit: This is probably one of my last post on the stratosphere in this winter, because I kinda shifted my focus from the stratosphere on the 2013 storm season. I am already doing reanalysis, and preparing analog forecasts and comparisons of the 2013 storm season with past seasons and years. :)
While models always seem to show snow scenarios and then removing them or just keeping them in the future forever, the stratosphere is a different story. The general idea with the warming and the polar vortex disposition remains more all less the same, with minimal "away moving". The models are quite accurate for stratosphere, basically because it is on a "flat" calculation surface, and the features are on a very large scale, so it is easier for the model to forecast activities in the mid and upper stratosphere. The accuracy of models for stratosphere in the 336-384 hours, is the same as the 500mb forecasts in the 120-144 hours.
The latest runs are basically already carving out the "R.I.P Polar Vortex" tombstone, or at least for its influence, hinting at a possible "official" SSW event around January 10th.
ECMWF is also picking up the warming in the mid and upper strat. and will possibly continue to do so as the "main events" move closer to the 240h time frame. And with the wave1 picking up the pace again throughout the whole 0-10 day timeframe, the vortex already began its displacement mode.
The forecasted sounding for the point where EC has Tmax at 10mb at 192h. You can see the the warm air intrusion fairly good in the mid and more the upper strat.
With the High strengthening and putting more pressure on the Polar Vortex, along with the warm air intrusion, the wind forecasted beyond 300h, shows a zonal reversal over the pole.
So basically, quite a clash forming above our heads.
It is still too far away to start speculating on possible effects on the troposphere and the winter in Europe.
The forecasts for the stratosphere at mid and higher levels, look really amazing. I have never seen anything like it, not even in the archives.
Warming events like this, would really disrupt the polar vortex, and if this would really happen and downwell into the troposphere, it could be a real game changer. Depending where the leftovers of the polar vortex would fall, we could have either summer in January and February, or a mini ice age.
