Takt 16°C, Wind ca. 10km/h aus SO, leichte Schleierbewölkung.
Liebe Grüße Judith Standort: 5145 Neukirchen a.d. Enknach/ Bez. Braunau am Inn / Innviertel / OÖ Ausstattung: Augen + Ohren Canon EOS 500 D 15-88/70-300+ Stativ Notebook Toshiba Satellite L350D Sony Xperia T Außenthermometer ;-)
The advance of a cooler maritime air mass from the West will probably trigger another round of thunderstorms, starting over Switzerland, Western Austria and Southern Germany in the afternoon hours and intensifying along its way further East. Moderate instability (CAPE expected to be around 1000 J/kg) and moderate vertical wind shear (DLS around 15 m/s) are thought to be sufficient for at least multicellular storms with a primary threat of large hail. The formation of a cold pool in the wake of the storms may also foster the formation of an MCS or a convective line even despite the lack of large-scale forcing. Consequently, rather widespread severe wind gusts are a distinct scenario, which is why the level 2 was extended to Southernmost Germany and Northern Austria. Further East, remnants of an EML (situated over Southern France and the Western Mediterranean region today) will be advected over the Eastern Alpine region towards Hungary and Slovakia. Hence capping will probably be strong enough to suppress convection during the day despite the build-up of CAPE in the range of 1000 J/kg or more in association with a rapid boundary layer recovery, and it is unclear how far East the evening convection will manage to push. MCSes in these environments have a history of sticking to the Northern Alpine fringe and travelling due eastward for a long time. This is why the level 1 was extended to Eastern Austria, Eastern Czech Republic and Western Slovakia as well, even though the majority of forecast models only shows the passage of a dry wind shift line overnight and no convective precipitation any more.